Deciphering Global Epidemics: Analytical Approaches to the by Andrew Cliff, Peter Haggett, Matthew Smallman-Raynor

By Andrew Cliff, Peter Haggett, Matthew Smallman-Raynor

This publication makes use of information accumulated within the American magazine Morbidity and Mortality Weekly file for a few 350 towns from around the globe to examine tendencies in worldwide mortality on the flip of the 20th century, a interval that witnessed the most dramatic adjustments in urban progress on a world scale. The illnesses thought of are diphtheria, enteric fever, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis and whooping cough--as good as demise from all reasons. the knowledge have by no means prior to been systematically analyzed they usually supply very important insights into styles of mortality from those ailments.

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Example text

Finally chapter 6 brings the focus down still further, studying the evidence that is yielded by the disease traces of individual cities. Special attention is paid to the cities of North America and then to those of the British Isles. The last part of the book, chapter 7, looks at what has happened to mortality from different diseases since the picture drawn in the three previous chapters was completed in 1912. It portrays the twentieth-century course both for mortality in general and for the six marker diseases, and tries to probe the factors which lay behind the declines of mortality.

1). From an analysis of empirical data on measles cases in terms of their age, family position, location of residence, and pattern of contacts, Panum was able to state a series of seven epidemiological rules for the disease. The first related to the timing of the appearance of the rash: The rule: That the contagium of measles may not cause disease phenomenon for some time after its introduction into the organism, and then only after an indefinite prodromal period, according to my observations always on the 13th or 14th day after exposure, was proved constant to me in a significant number of accurate observations.

326. Asia, Europe, United States South America Africa 12 Prologue: epidemics past cause disease in humans, although the otherfivecaused epizootics and major economic loss in domestic animals (for example, African swine fever). Over the last sixty years, the number of arboviruses recognised has leapt from 6 to 504 worldwide (Lederberg, Shope, and Oaks, 1992). One-quarter of these are associated with viral diseases. North America alone now has around ninety different arboviruses and these include a few consistently associated with human disease: Colorado tick fever, California encephalitis, and dengue fever.

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