Can Technical Analysis Still Beat Random Systems by Rudolf Wittmer

By Rudolf Wittmer

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7 percent in the third quarter of 2007. Although the share of delinquent fixed-rate subprime loans has also grown, it is still smaller and has grown more slowly than the share of delinquent subprime ARMs. The very high rates of delinquency on recent subprime mortgage loans surprised investors, and lenders have virtually stopped making new subprime loans. Trading of existing subprime mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) has diminished, and their prices have fallen sharply, to as low as 14 cents on the dollar for the riskiest of those securities, because of uncertainty about their value, particularly in view of investors’ loss of confidence in the securities’ credit ratings.

The aging of the nation’s population also will affect the federal budget over time. 3 percent of GDP in 2007 to around 6 percent in 25 years (and roughly stabilize at that rate), in part because of that demographic shift. If tax revenues as a share of GDP remain at current levels (roughly 19 percent of GDP), additional spending for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will eventually cause future budget deficits to become unsustainable. Even if revenues follow the path projected under current law and rise to about 24 percent of GDP by 2050, budgetary pressures will increase significantly.

Credit to both financial and nonfinancial businesses, has been especially affected by losses in the subprime mortgage market. In particular, those losses have severely curtailed the asset-backed segment of the commercial paper market, which has provided financing for structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and other investment funds Recent actions by some large banks to resolve the troubles of their sponsored SIVs have included bringing the SIVs’ assets—and losses—back onto the banks’ balance sheets.

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